Long vs. short game

By Alex Gratzek (originally in The Korea Times)

Since the summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and U.S. President Donald Trump, it has become evident that the two are playing different games. One is pursuing the long haul while the other is pursuing the short-term gain.

Prior to their meeting, North Korea announced a unilateral cessation of nuclear and missile tests which help to ease tensions allowing for the two to meet. After their meeting, President Trump announced that North Korea was “no longer a nuclear threat” despite the lack of such evidence emanating from the Korean Peninsula.

Since this “agreement,” North Korea has continued to refrain from such tests but has taken other steps which violate the spirit of the agreement. This includes the installation of a new nuclear reactor capable of producing plutonium and the failure to destroy missile testing sites despite Kim’s promise to President Trump.

However, despite these actions, President Trump has refrained from any negative rhetoric and has instead been issuing positive proclamations. Kim knows that Trump’s desire for a deal is unequivocally high. It is one of the few positive aspects of his presidency and would allow him to gloat over his predecessors in office who failed.

To this end, Kim has made a number of gestures which win North Korea positive widespread coverage such as the release of three Korean-Americans held on trumped-up charges and the “closing” of its nuclear testing site. This is analogous to the destruction of the cooling tower at Yongpyong in 2008. Such a spectacle makes for good TV but one which largely leaves the guts of its nuclear program intact as is with the case of the test sites “closing.”

These North Korean actions violating the spirit of “denuclearization” aren’t front page news and will not get widespread coverage on the 24/7 cable news network. It gives Trump the ability to continue to proclaim positive steps in defusing the North Korean situation while not actually changing any facts on the ground. Likewise, these positive endorsements from Trump eased the pariah status of North Korea allowing for the easing of sanctions aimed against it from South Korea and China.

President Trump has been backpedaling from his previous mantra of “denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula” because it is not imminently achievable and any continued proclamations as such would ring hollow. The trashing of Obama’s Iranian deal gives Trump no wiggle room for any actual deal as anything that doesn’t exceed Obama’s deal opens him up to criticism.

So instead, he claims success and North Korea is happy to play along by refraining from tests which would be widely covered on TV and would threaten to end their tango. Any tests puts Trump on the spot and will be directly at odds with his recent positivity and force his hand.

Recently, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited North Korea. The two sides presented the talks in different lights. Pompeo referred to them as productive while North Korea voiced its displeasure in unleashing rhetoric accusing the U.S. of possessing a “gangster-like” mindset. Such meetings and rhetoric will likely continue to play out over the next months. North Korea knows it can play hard to get and wring further concessions from the Trump administration.

Trump has built himself into a master negotiator who will loathe to actually admit failure or that he was duped. His ego won’t allow him to admit he’s wrong. He will continue on as is unless confronted with overwhelming visible evidence to the contrary, namely a highly visible nuclear or missile test.

Kim Jong-un’s steady improvement of missile technology and the expansion of his nuclear program have proven him to be a negotiator in the mold of his forebears, a feckless one. He will likely continue to issue vague proclamations to support Trump’s delusion but fail to take concrete steps towards denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula. Talks will likely drag on until the end of Trump’s term in office but with limited progress.

President Trump, being an old man who will likely face a tough re-election, is happy to play up any positive news concerning North Korea for his short-term political benefit and ego. Kim, being a third-generation totalitarian dictator can play Trump’s short-term game for his long-term aims.

When a new president is in office, Kim could make up a pretext of supposed American animosity and restart the process anew. President Richard Nixon played the part of the madman, President Trump could very well be a madman whom Kim would not want to embarrass. Especially so after it became evident President Trump was entirely sincere in his willingness to invade Venezuela last year.

North Korea is a geographic midget and an economic dwarf compared to its neighbors. It’s only claim to greatness is its nuclear program. In such a neighborhood as it finds itself, it is not likely it is willing to give up its weapons which it built over decades at great cost to itself. They are its guarantee that the shrimp won’t suffer. Their long game is to present the world with itself as an accepted de facto nuclear power. This takes time. President Trump is a useful stepping stone to this end.