Self-inflicted wound

By Alex Gratzek – Originally published in The Korea Times

Last week President Trump announced that he was asking Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to cancel his scheduled visit to North Korea, citing the lack of progress made on the issue of denuclearization since his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un back in June.

Such a move is a typical Trumpian play because the concept of delayed gratification or the long haul seems to elude him. The issue of North Korea’s nuclear weapons has been festering for decades; to think that the problem would be solved following their one meeting or the months immediately following it is the height of fantasy.

Such a cancellation is a move that plays into the hands of Kim Jong-un as President Trump comes off as the intransigent party. Negotiations, especially ones of this magnitude and complexity, will always have hiccups and obstacles but such difficulties are to be expected. They should never be used as an excuse to scuttle continued engagement with North Korea.

By canceling the meeting, the U.S. paints itself as the feckless negotiator whose line South Korea does not have to follow any longer as it can pursue continued engagement with North Korea on its own accord. This allows for the realization of the long-desired North Korean goal of driving a wedge between the two allies and enhancing its position vis-a-vis South Korea and the United States.

Indeed, President Moon is pushing for rail links with North Korea which could conceivably be extended to Russia and China. It would be only a matter of time before South Korea would come to rely on such links giving the North leverage over the South in the future.

Domestically, there would be a business crowd who would not wish to see any disruption to such links undermining the ability of Seoul to take a hard line. Such is one of the problems a free society like South Korea faces in dealing with Pyongyang. In the past, North Korea appealed to dissident students and leftists to stir up domestic opposition in South Korea; in the future it could be those making a profit.

Furthermore, canceling the summit opens the door to the very thing Trump accused China of doing, specifically giving aid to North Korea to spite the U.S, president for the tariffs he has imposed on China. Beijing, for the most part, has been in compliance with U.N. sanctions against the North.

However, if North Korea can present itself to the world as a reasonable negotiating partner, the door opens for increased Chinese engagement with it and less compliance with sanctions or to look the other way at violations.

The U.S. needs to continue to engage with the North Koreans. Of course, as history has repeatedly shown, they will drag their feet on negotiations, and very likely, if any deal is struck, violate or break it at some future date.

What is important is that the world sees North Korea acting as the feckless negotiator instead of the United States. Stopping Pompeo’s visit because of the lack of progress on what will likely be a long-drawn-out negotiating process is asinine.

Instead of canceling the summit, Trump should have hung out the prospect of a peace treaty formally ending the war as a carrot to draw North Korea into giving something up such as allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect its nuclear sites to determine the number of nuclear weapons it holds.

Any peace treaty will not be drafted and revised in an instant, giving the IAEA time to do a thorough inspection. An agreement to begin drafting a peace treaty would show American sincerity and a desire for peace while putting the ball in North Korea’s court to make a gesture in response.

If America makes the negotiations of a peace treaty contingent upon allowing the IAEA in and North Korea refuses, then it will be seen as the party that is stalling and insincere which it has historically been. Engagement with Pyongyang should not be canceled so willy-nilly.

Even worse, it seems as if joint exercises will resume which seemingly violates the gentlemen’s agreement where North Korea would refrain from nuclear and missile tests in return for a cessation of the exercises.

The resumption of such exercises will paint the U.S. as being hostile to the North making it seem reasonable if it decides to renew tests, or if it doesn’t do so, it will be seen as being led by a reasonable leader.

Engagement with North Korea should be canceled only when it’s abundantly evident to all parties concerned that it is the North dragging its feet or being insincere.

When America holds the moral high ground, its position in negotiations is strengthened as opposed to an arbitrary cancellation of a meeting which serves to undercut itself.