A wily negotiator

By Alex Gratzek – Originally published in The Korea Times

Since the opening of dialogue between North Korea and the United States, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has proven himself to be a shrewd negotiator in the manner of his father and grandfather in his dealings with Presidents Donald Trump, Xi Jinping and Moon Jae-in.

So far, Kim has managed to play his weak hand to successfully in seeking an end to the most stringent sanctions North Korea has ever faced.

Kim has also successfully played Trump’s short game as a stepping stone in his long-term ambitions. Kim gave President Trump what he wanted, good optics.

This came in the form of the release of Americans held captive in North Korea; the first ever meeting between a North Korean leader and a sitting American president, along with the end of missile and nuclear tests. These actions have given President Trump the ability to claim success in dealing with the threat posed by North Korea.

The lack of negative headlines emanating from North Korea continues to allow positive proclamations when in reality the situation is less than stellar. It is evident in the recent announcement of the discovery of 13 secret missile sites.

The discovery means attempts to positively portray the destruction of one missile site back in July must be viewed in another light. This discovery does not stand in direct contrast to the “agreement” between the two but it certainly violates the spirit.

On Nov. 7, Kim cancelled his scheduled meeting with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This cancellation came a day after midterm elections in the United States in which the Democrats seized control of the House of Representatives. Perhaps it was a coincidence, perhaps not.

In the end though, President Trump’s dismal approval ratings, the Mueller probe, along with a Democratic control of the House and the accompanying ability to launch investigations into the various scandals surrounding Trump, means that North Korea is likely not high on his list of priorities when his political survival is at stake.

While Kim gave Trump positive optics, playing his short game to his advantage, he has taken a different tack with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. With President Xi, Kim has played to his ego.

The year of 2013 saw Xi become the paramount leader in China and in 2016 he did away with term limits. Limits had been instituted in China in 1981 when Deng Xiaoping introduced them to prevent a recurrence of a destructive leader along the lines of Mao Zedong.

Since this abolition of term limits, President Xi has tried to present himself as the third big man in modern China, following Mao and Deng.

In 2013, Chinese-North Korean relations came under strain. The reason for the strain was that North Korea proceeded with nuclear tests despite Chinese protests along with the execution of Kim’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek.

The uncle controlled the coal trade with China and had links with the Chinese leadership. These strained relations opened up North Korea to the most stringent sanctions it ever faced as China showed its displeasure by not utilizing its veto in the U.N. to protect North Korean interests.

To improve relations with Xi, Kim has played to his ego. September saw the end of the Mass Games in North Korea. During the games, President Xi was portrayed “inside a gold-framed circle surrounded by red” as reported by the New York Times.

This is the manner in which Kim Jong-il and Kim Il-sung were also shown. The kowtowing on Kim’s part opens the way to a possible visit by President Xi to Pyongyang which could lessen North Korea’s pariah status and raise the opportunities for increased trade.

With President Moon, Kim has played on Moon’s heartfelt desire for improved relations on the peninsula and eventual unification. So far, the two leaders have met three times and Kim even made a symbolic, but brief visit to South Korea when he passed over the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ).

President Moon has been busy portraying Kim as a new generation of leader, who is eager to pursue economic reform in his impoverished country and that current negotiations are completely different from those in the past.

Kim has played to Moon’s hopes by agreeing to study the chance of rail links between the two and the destruction of guard posts along the DMZ.

Regardless of these positive proclamations on Moon’s part, these efforts are only superficial changes that only serve as a new facade on the rotten foundations on which relations sit. Other than Kim’s youthfulness, what has he done to differentiate himself from his predecessors or earn this image?

How many citizens remain in the gulags of North Korea? Has Kim expressed remorse or sorrow, or apologized for the various heinous acts North Korea has committed against South Korea by his predecessors? Of course not, but President Moon’s unbridled optimism for closer relations has been artfully played upon by Kim.

Kim is in the same mold as his father and grandfather, ruthless. He has shown this ruthlessness by executing his uncle due to his stature and independent power base in North Korea which made him a potential rival along with the assassination of his half-brother who, however unlikely, could have been a rival contender for the position of Supreme Leader.

In poker, one is often told to play your opponent and not play your cards. Kim has done exactly this. He has managed to read each of his principal counterparts in negotiations and has managed to play his incredibly weak hand almost perfectly.

The most stringent sanctions his regime has ever faced are loosening, relations with China are improving and there are increasingly divergent positions between the negotiating stances of the U.S. and South Korea. Well played supreme leader, well played.