Coming full circle?

By Alex Gratzek – Originally published in The Korea Times

The end of February witnessed the second meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in Hanoi, and its failure. Entering into the summit, the diplomatic engagement between North Korea and the United States had been one of the few bright spots of Trump’s presidency.

Knowing this, it is not unreasonable to believe Kim thought Trump would seize at any deal, even if it were substandard. The deal offered by Kim called for the easing of sanctions in return for the made-for-TV spectacle of the destruction of an aging nuclear site.

This site was only a small piece of the North Korean nuclear infrastructure. Kim gambled wrong in believing such a spectacle would prove irresistible to Trump.

Despite my previous criticism of Trump, I will give credit where credit is due. He made the right move by leaving the summit rather than get suckered into a shoddy deal. The early departure echoed President Ronald Reagan when he simply walked out of a summit with former Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev at Reykjavik in 1986.

From the looks of things, it appears that Kim has proven to be a feckless negotiator as were his father and grandfather before him. Prior to their first summit, Kim announced the destruction of the nuclear testing site at Punggry-ri as a show of good faith.

Such an action should be taken with a pinch of salt as it’s widely believed the only destruction wrought was a cosmetic destruction of the tunnel entrances while leaving the rest of the facility undamaged and easy to reopen. No inspectors were ever allowed in to verify the “destruction” despite Kim’s proclamations that they would be allowed to do so.

Furthermore, American intelligence officials believe that between the two summits, Kim continued building weapons and expanding the nuclear infrastructure of North Korea. Surely these can’t be considered the actions of a leader who was intent on truly bargaining away his nuclear weapons to gain economic development.

What will be interesting to see will be Kim’s reaction to the failed summit. Upon coming to power, he promised the citizens of North Korea that they would never have to tighten their belts again. The lack of relief from the most stringent sanctions North Korea has ever experienced puts Kim in a bind as he has failed to deliver.

Now, reports are coming out that North Korea is preparing the launch pad at Sohae for missile tests in the wake of the failed summit. This launchpad was supposed to have been previously dismantled or demolished. Time will tell if this is just a ploy to pressure Trump to make concessions or if North Korea actually follows through in order to put the spotlight back on itself.

Whatever happens, the choice is North Korea’s. It can choose to maintain the slightly improved relations as seen by the a cessation of joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States, its own stoppage of nuclear and missile testing along with the halting of vitriolic rhetoric from both sides.

This would not destroy the atmosphere that has allowed for negotiations and summits to have taken place. Negotiations between lower level officials could still continue.

If it launches the missile in a provocative move, then the likely countermove would be the resumption of joint military exercises coupled with attempts to emplace even tighter sanctions and the escalation of rhetorical warfare. It would bring us back to where we were a year ago before the warming of relations in the build-up to the Olympics.

If that is the case, then the most recent round of negotiations will have come full circle. Every other negotiation for the past 30 years has followed a similar trajectory. It is time to begin to think of a radical approach to dealing with North Korea as the traditional approach of negotiations has proven fruitless time and time again.