In late May, America surpassed the 100,000 mark of confirmed Corona cases. Over 30 million Americans have found themselves out of work as a result of the pandemic and the stock market has remained relatively buoyant all things considered. This is of paramount importance to President Trump as the economy and the stock market were to serve as the winning issue for his re-election campaign.
Despite all the issues confronting the nation, President Trump has remained extremely popular with his base and with the fanataical support of his base, the possibility of squeaking out an electoral college victory remains.
However, whatever chances he has for re-election will be going to the wind in the near future as the reality of Corona sets in. His base has decried the threat posed by Corona as being overly hyped up or even dismissed it as a democratic hoax to undermine the President’s re-election campaign. Simply put, the full effects of it have yet to be felt in rural America.
In Medieval Times, The Bubonic Plague spread from the steppes of Asia westwards. The plague was carried by fleas on rats which spread to countries along the Mediterranean Seaboard via merchant vessels. After reaching port cities, the plague was spread inland by the rats.
In modern times, viruses and plagues aren’t spread by merchant vessels anymore but instead by international travelers. The virus naturally entered America through large cities such as New York and Los Angeles. From there, the Corona Virus is spreading outwards.
The nature of America’s citizens will help spread the virus. America is a very individualistic country, distrust of the government is a quintessential American trait and cars are ubiquitous. All of these components, when coupled with the low rate of testing in America, likely means the virus will incubate and explode again in hot spots around the country.
Social distancing guidelines, mask wearing and quarantining were all encouraged and as a result Corona cases in New York have been falling. However, the lifting of restrictions before the virus was fully contained means it will spread throughout the rest of the country leading to Corona breakouts hitting parts of the nation that are more inclined to support President Trump.
Trump country is characterized by being rural areas. This should provide a natural defense against the transmission of the Corona virus due to the low population densities but the disregard of basic precautions will help to undermine this benefit.
Trump country, as I noted, have been dismissive of the CoronaVirus. Social distancing is frowned upon, wearing masks has been met with ridicule, and other basic precautions have been dismissed as the response to Corona has turned into a flashpoint in the cultural wars.
When further outbreaks occur, the rural areas which support Trump will be among the hardest hit. Their disregard for basic precautions means it will spread fast and when the reality sets in, it will be too late. Rural hospitals have been shutting down in recent years due to budgetary concerns and those hospitals which remain do not have the specialization and resources of their brethren located in population dense areas.
The thing with Corona is that it is an open ended crises which will dominate the news and our reality for the indefinite future. The Mueller investigation and Trump’s Impeachment were both affairs which ultimately had an ending. This is not the case with Corona. The ‘hoax’ that is Corona will be exposed as a reality, the economy will take further hits as the country opens up per-maturely and the inept government response will be put on full display. It is not something which can be outlasted, ignored or simply blustered over as has been Trump’s modus operandi.
Initially, when it was affecting Blue States, it was ‘the other’ who was being affected but red states will increasingly be affected. Over Memorial Day weekend, there was video of a massive pool party in Arkansas with nobody wearing masks. That is the exact behavior which will spread the virus among the innards of America, AKA Trump Country. As Trump’s election campaign begins in earnest, his and his supporters’ denial of Corona will cause it to spread like wildfire once he starts holding his massive re-election rallies in which basic prevention behaviors are ignored.
As the virus spreads, deaths will increase and the reality of CoronaVirus will hit home. Older voters, traditionally a strong bastion of support for Trump, will die at higher rates. The ineptness of the government response will be shown and I suspect this will lead to a lack of enthusiasm amongst Trump’s base at a minimum or an outright defection to the democrats.
Trump’s low approval rating, the inept government response along with the realization that the CoronaVirus is no hoax is going to lead to a walloping come November 2020. As a betting man, I am actually putting my money where my mouth is.
Current events through a historical lens 