In my last column Graveyard of Empires- Part II, I wrote “I’d wager heavily on the American supported Afghan government collapsing followed by a period of turmoil and infighting.” I was right on the money although the speed of the collapse was surprising.
The Afghanistan Governments fall in 2021 was eerily reminiscent of The Taliban’s fall in 2001 but it is simply the way Afghanistan is- huge swings in momentum are the norm . What’s important to remember about Afghanistan- is that there are so many factions and ethnic groups which are constantly pulling together and ripping apart in a constant kaleidoscope of changing alliances depending on evolving circumstances. There is no such thing as strange bedfellows in Afghan politics.
After 9/11, all the warlords, tribal chiefs, and players of note knew the hammer was going to drop. Support for the Taliban ebbed away as the various power brokers defected in the face of American money, airpower and fury. It was a no brainer for most. Momentum swung decisively behind the American backed Northern Alliance. The diehard Taliban fought and died and those who survived fled to their home turf in Southern Afghanistan to regroup and await the ebb tide.
But the Americans overstayed their welcome and if anything can unite the disparate peoples of Afghanistan, it’s an outsider. It took 20 years of constant low level warfare for that tide to turn but as it did, The Taliban surged forward. There was no sense of Afghanistan as a nation and hence no motivation for the average soldier in the Afghan National Army to fight. Plus, The Taliban were offering money to join or go home.
What happens next? Well, I suspect the Taliban gorged and will be quite busy trying to consolidate their territory and power. Do they call a traditional Jirga, an assembly of representatives of tribes and people, in an attempt to forge some kind of permanent peace deal with autonomy for the various groups or do The Taliban try to purge all the collaborators who can’t escape, rollback women’s rights, and continue the persecution of minority sects and people?
If they go the first route, then there’s a chance a peaceful equilibrium to develop organically from within Afghanistan. There are signs of hope that this may be the case. When they took over in 1996, they seized the former Communist Leader of Afghanistan from a UN compound, tortured him, castrated him and then dragged his body through the city. In contrast, former President Karazai recently met with Taliban officials for political talks. Also, The Taliban executed the leader of ISIS in Afghanistan but as far as I know, no other high profile figures.
If they go the second route, then their quick takeover will come to bite them in the ass. The Afghan National Army deserted, it was not destroyed and all those men remain potential fighters. They may not have fought for the idea of Afghanistan, but I’d wager they’d fight for their village, home, sect or ethnic group. The tighter The Taliban clench their fist and centralize control, the more resistance they will create opening up options for President Biden.
Anti-Taliban elements are already regrouping in the areas which had been the domains of The Northern Alliance while in the cities, there are protests in cities against the uncouth rule of The Taliban. If the Taliban are going to be replaced militarily or changed politically, its going to come from a home grown movement such as these. This plays into one of America’s traditional strengths- throwing money behind different players to advance it’s agenda.
The one silver lining in the whole Afghanistan debacle was the introduction of girls education. After two decades of American influence, the genie is out of the bottle and may play a moderating influence in the near future but we must nurture that seed. To that end must open dialogue with more moderate factions of The Taliban. Who are The Taliban more likely to listen to- Al Qaeda extremists from abroad who broke the law of Pashtuli, causing The Taliban to lose power and 20 years of war or their wives, daughters and mothers? Let us not forget the 19th amendment was passed in the USA because a mother told her son in the Tennessee state legislature to vote for ratification.
What matters now is the new facts on the ground and having a working relationship with The Taliban. Traditionally, most of the killing starts when the routing occurs. I haven’t heard or seen wide scale killing and looking at the airport, there is chaos from people fleeing but not chaos from The Taliban going in to butcher everyone. The recent attack on the airport highlights this, it was an ISIS attack, not a Taliban attack. The lack of Taliban attacks is a signal to America- let’s keep dialogue open and hopefully a sign of Taliban moderation. Or it could just be a ploy to get the Americans out before the bloodletting begins.
It’s important to remember the ancient Indian idea of Rajamandala. It holds that bordering states are most likely to be hostile while states with no shared border are friendly states. Afghanistan is in a rough neighborhood with stronger powers pushing their own agendas while America, being so far away, has the most minimal of interests in Central Asia, namely don’t attack us again. It took twenty years for America and Vietnam to establish relations following The Fall of Saigon but in Afghan politics, there are no strange bedfellows.
Current events through a historical lens 